Copa do Brasil · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa do Brasil average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Internacional at 56%, the draw at 25% and Gremio at 18%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 0.77.
The league sets the starting point. Copa do Brasil has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Internacional have 8 in 22 this season (4 of 11 at home), Gremio 10 in 22 (5 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Internacional and 0.77 for Gremio. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 22 | 36% | 23% | 55% |
| Gremio | 22 | 45% | 14% | 59% |
More: Internacional season stats · Gremio season stats · Copa do Brasil table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.