2. Deild · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Deild average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 71% | 29% | Yes |
The result model puts Fjolnir at 60%, the draw at 20% and Hvíti Riddarinn at 20%, from expected goals of 2.2 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fjolnir have 16 in 18 this season (8 of 10 at home), Hvíti Riddarinn 9 in 18 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 77% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.2 for Fjolnir and 1.19 for Hvíti Riddarinn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fjolnir | 18 | 89% | 72% | 100% |
| Hvíti Riddarinn | 18 | 50% | 50% | 56% |
More: Fjolnir season stats · Hvíti Riddarinn season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.