1. SNL · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 19:15. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. SNL average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Aluminij at 39%, the draw at 28% and Koper at 33%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 1.15.
The league sets the starting point. 1. SNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Aluminij have 2 in 5 this season (1 of 3 at home), Koper 1 in 6 (0 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 66% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Aluminij and 1.15 for Koper. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Aluminij season stats · Koper season stats · 1. SNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.