Premier League · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 32% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 36%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Al Ittihad at 29%, the draw at 31% and Ceramica Cleopatra at 39%, from expected goals of 0.87 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 36% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al Ittihad have 14 in 33 this season (7 of 15 at home), Ceramica Cleopatra 6 in 26 (2 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 27%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 30%, from expected goals of 0.87 for Al Ittihad and 1.05 for Ceramica Cleopatra. Folding in 30% of that view gives 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ittihad | 33 | 42% | 15% | 42% |
| Ceramica Cleopatra | 26 | 23% | 15% | 42% |
More: Al Ittihad season stats · Ceramica Cleopatra season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.