Copa do Brasil · Thursday, 27 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa do Brasil average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Vasco DA Gama at 59%, the draw at 23% and Vitoria at 18%, from expected goals of 1.82 and 0.88.
The league sets the starting point. Copa do Brasil has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vasco DA Gama have 12 in 22 this season (7 of 12 at home), Vitoria 8 in 23 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.82 for Vasco DA Gama and 0.88 for Vitoria. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 55% | 18% | 64% |
| Vitoria | 23 | 35% | 26% | 35% |
More: Vasco DA Gama season stats · Vitoria season stats · Copa do Brasil table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.