Conference League · Thursday, 27 August 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Conference League average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | no pick |
The result model puts SC Freiburg at 47%, the draw at 23% and Motherwell at 30%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.4.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SC Freiburg have 22 in 34 this season (12 of 17 at home), Motherwell 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 34 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 62% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.79 for SC Freiburg and 1.4 for Motherwell. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 34 | 65% | 38% | 62% |
| Motherwell | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.