Copa Sudamericana · Thursday, 27 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 38% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Sudamericana average is 39%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts River Plate at 43%, the draw at 29% and Santa Fe at 28%, from expected goals of 1.24 and 0.94.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 39% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. River Plate have 6 in 25 this season (5 of 15 at home), Santa Fe 13 in 26 (5 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 32% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.24 for River Plate and 0.94 for Santa Fe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| River Plate | 25 | 24% | 16% | 28% |
| Santa Fe | 26 | 50% | 27% | 73% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.