Europa League · Thursday, 27 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts Lillestrom at 37%, the draw at 27% and Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 35%, from expected goals of 1.24 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lillestrom have 8 in 17 this season (6 of 8 at home), Egnatia Rrogozhinë 13 in 39 (7 of 20 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.24 for Lillestrom and 1.19 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 17 | 47% | 29% | 41% |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 39 | 33% | 21% | 33% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.