Conference League · Thursday, 27 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Conference League average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | no pick |
The result model puts KuPS at 40%, the draw at 27% and Shamrock Rovers at 32%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. KuPS have 9 in 20 this season (5 of 10 at home), Shamrock Rovers 12 in 27 (6 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.3 for KuPS and 1.14 for Shamrock Rovers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KuPS | 20 | 45% | 25% | 65% |
| Shamrock Rovers | 27 | 44% | 26% | 56% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.