2. Deild · Thursday, 27 August 2026. Final score 3–3 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 72% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 71% | 29% | Yes |
The result model puts Hvíti Riddarinn at 29%, the draw at 20% and Fjolnir at 51%, from expected goals of 1.77 and 2.34.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hvíti Riddarinn have 10 in 19 this season (4 of 9 at home), Fjolnir 16 in 19 (8 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 76%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 1.77 for Hvíti Riddarinn and 2.34 for Fjolnir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hvíti Riddarinn | 19 | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| Fjolnir | 19 | 84% | 68% | 95% |
More: Hvíti Riddarinn season stats · Fjolnir season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.