Conference League · Thursday, 27 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Conference League average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | no pick |
The result model puts Hapoel Tel Aviv at 53%, the draw at 26% and Atalanta at 21%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 0.85.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hapoel Tel Aviv have 15 in 35 this season (7 of 17 at home), Atalanta 14 in 38 (7 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.51 for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 0.85 for Atalanta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 35 | 43% | 29% | 43% |
| Atalanta | 38 | 37% | 18% | 53% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.