Europa League · Thursday, 27 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | no pick |
The result model puts CSKA Sofia at 70%, the draw at 16% and OFI at 13%, from expected goals of 2.64 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. CSKA Sofia have 4 in 5 this season (3 of 3 at home), OFI 22 in 32 (12 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 32 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 39% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 2.64 for CSKA Sofia and 1.09 for OFI. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 5 | 80% | 40% | 40% |
| OFI | 32 | 69% | 34% | 47% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.