Conference League · Thursday, 27 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Conference League average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Brann at 38%, the draw at 24% and PAOK at 38%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 1.55.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Brann have 15 in 17 this season (8 of 9 at home), PAOK 18 in 32 (10 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Brann and 1.55 for PAOK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brann | 17 | 88% | 47% | 82% |
| PAOK | 32 | 56% | 25% | 44% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.