Conference League · Thursday, 27 August 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Conference League average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | no pick |
The result model puts Borac Banja Luka at 24%, the draw at 20% and Vikingur Reykjavik at 56%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 2.34.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Borac Banja Luka have 1 in 1 this season (1 of 1 at home), Vikingur Reykjavik 15 in 19 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 19 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 1.51 for Borac Banja Luka and 2.34 for Vikingur Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 19 | 79% | 74% | 63% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.