1. Division · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Stromsgodset at 58%, the draw at 20% and Hodd at 22%, from expected goals of 2.22 and 1.33.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.22 | 77% | 67% | -11% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.20 | 23% | 33% | +11% |
| Both teams to score | 1.33 | 71% | 63% | -8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Stromsgodset 1.40, draw 4.50, Hodd 5.50.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stromsgodset have 12 in 18 this season (6 of 9 at home), Hodd 12 in 18 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 2.22 for Stromsgodset and 1.33 for Hodd. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stromsgodset | 18 | 67% | 44% | 61% |
| Hodd | 18 | 67% | 44% | 67% |
More: Stromsgodset season stats · Hodd season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.