1. Division · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 77% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 23% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Stabaek at 72%, the draw at 14% and Ranheim at 14%, from expected goals of 3.18 and 1.42.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.22 | 77% | 77% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.20 | 23% | 23% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 64% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Stabaek 1.30, draw 5.25, Ranheim 6.50.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stabaek have 13 in 18 this season (6 of 8 at home), Ranheim 17 in 18 (8 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 80%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 73%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 74%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 84%, from expected goals of 3.18 for Stabaek and 1.42 for Ranheim. Folding in 30% of that view gives 77%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Stabaek season stats · Ranheim season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.