Women's Champions League · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Women's Champions League average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts PSV/Eindhoven W at 30%, the draw at 23% and Køge W at 46%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 1.75.
The league sets the starting point. Women's Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. PSV/Eindhoven W have 0 in 1 this season, Køge W 3 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.37 for PSV/Eindhoven W and 1.75 for Køge W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV/Eindhoven W | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Køge W | 3 | 100% | 33% | 0% |
More: Women's Champions League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.