EFL Cup · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The EFL Cup average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts Preston at 40%, the draw at 27% and Everton at 33%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. EFL Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Preston have 1 in 1 this season, Everton 17 in 38 (7 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 38 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.3 for Preston and 1.14 for Everton. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Preston season stats · Everton season stats · EFL Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.