1. Division · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 73% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts ODD Ballklubb at 42%, the draw at 22% and Kongsvinger at 36%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 1.66.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% | 73% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 27% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.33 | 71% | 69% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.55, draw 3.75, Kongsvinger 2.20.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. ODD Ballklubb have 14 in 18 this season (7 of 9 at home), Kongsvinger 16 in 18 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 72% and 75%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 75%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.81 for ODD Ballklubb and 1.66 for Kongsvinger. Folding in 30% of that view gives 73%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODD Ballklubb | 18 | 78% | 61% | 67% |
| Kongsvinger | 18 | 89% | 56% | 83% |
More: ODD Ballklubb season stats · Kongsvinger season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.