Champions League · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Champions League average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Lyon at 53%, the draw at 24% and Fenerbahçe at 24%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lyon have 19 in 34 this season (10 of 17 at home), Fenerbahçe 1 in 1 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 34 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Lyon and 1.09 for Fenerbahçe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 34 | 56% | 32% | 50% |
| Fenerbahçe | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Champions League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.