Copa Libertadores · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Libertadores average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Independiente del Valle at 56%, the draw at 23% and Deportes Tolima at 21%, from expected goals of 1.8 and 1.01.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Independiente del Valle have 16 in 25 this season (8 of 13 at home), Deportes Tolima 11 in 27 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.8 for Independiente del Valle and 1.01 for Deportes Tolima. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 25 | 64% | 44% | 48% |
| Deportes Tolima | 27 | 41% | 26% | 52% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.