1. Division · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 74% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 26% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Haugesund at 63%, the draw at 17% and Egersund at 20%, from expected goals of 2.85 and 1.62.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.25 | 76% | 74% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | 24% | 26% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 | 69% | 65% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Haugesund 1.48, draw 4.33, Egersund 4.75.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haugesund have 15 in 18 this season (6 of 8 at home), Egersund 13 in 18 (7 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 73% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 82%, from expected goals of 2.85 for Haugesund and 1.62 for Egersund. Folding in 30% of that view gives 74%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Haugesund season stats · Egersund season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.