EFL Cup · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The EFL Cup average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts Bradford at 45%, the draw at 25% and Burnley at 29%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 1.18.
The league sets the starting point. EFL Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bradford have 0 in 1 this season (0 of 1 at home), Burnley 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.53 for Bradford and 1.18 for Burnley. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Bradford season stats · Burnley season stats · EFL Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.