Copa Argentina · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 23:15. Our rating makes this 29% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Argentina average is 33%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 71% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Aldosivi at 25%, the draw at 36% and Independ. Rivadavia at 39%, from expected goals of 0.65 and 0.89.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Argentina has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Aldosivi have 4 in 21 this season (1 of 10 at home), Independ. Rivadavia 12 in 22 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 25% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 32%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 20%, from expected goals of 0.65 for Aldosivi and 0.89 for Independ. Rivadavia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 29%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldosivi | 21 | 19% | 10% | 43% |
| Independ. Rivadavia | 22 | 55% | 18% | 68% |
More: Aldosivi season stats · Independ. Rivadavia season stats · Copa Argentina table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.