Champions League · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Champions League average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | no pick |
The result model puts AEK Athens FC at 61%, the draw at 24% and Levski Sofia at 16%, from expected goals of 1.71 and 0.73.
The league sets the starting point. Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AEK Athens FC have 13 in 32 this season (7 of 16 at home), Levski Sofia 3 in 4 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 32 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 44% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.71 for AEK Athens FC and 0.73 for Levski Sofia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 32 | 41% | 28% | 38% |
| Levski Sofia | 4 | 75% | 0% | 50% |
More: Champions League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.