Svenska Cupen · Tuesday, 25 August 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Svenska Cupen average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | no pick |
The result model puts Utsikten at 40%, the draw at 24% and BK Hacken at 36%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.5.
The league sets the starting point. Svenska Cupen has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Utsikten have 0 in 0 this season, BK Hacken 9 in 16 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 16 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 72% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Utsikten and 1.5 for BK Hacken. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utsikten | 0 | — | — | — |
| BK Hacken | 16 | 56% | 44% | 69% |
More: BK Hacken season stats · Svenska Cupen table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.