Champions League · Tuesday, 25 August 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Champions League average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | no pick |
The result model puts Sabah FA at 29%, the draw at 24% and Hapoel Beer Sheva at 47%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 1.64.
The league sets the starting point. Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sabah FA have 0 in 1 this season (0 of 1 at home), Hapoel Beer Sheva 20 in 36 (9 of 18 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 36 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 60% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.25 for Sabah FA and 1.64 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FA | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 36 | 56% | 39% | 56% |
More: Champions League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.