Nottingham Forest v Leeds — prediction, stats and goal analysis

EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The EFL Cup average is 56%.

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Our ratings for this match

Market	Yes	No	Our call
Over 2.5 goals	56%	44%	Over
Over 3.5 goals	35%	65%	no pick
Both teams to score	60%	40%	Yes

The result model puts Nottingham Forest at 44%, the draw at 26% and Leeds at 31%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 1.21.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. EFL Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Nottingham Forest have 20 in 38 this season (8 of 19 at home), Leeds 21 in 38 (10 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 55%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.

Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.48 for Nottingham Forest and 1.21 for Leeds. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Team	Games	O2.5	O3.5	BTTS
Nottingham Forest	38	53%	26%	47%
Leeds	38	55%	37%	58%

Head to head

6 Feb 26Leeds 3–1 Nottingham ForestO2.5

9 Nov 25Nottingham Forest 3–1 LeedsO2.5

4 Apr 23Leeds 2–1 Nottingham ForestO2.5

5 Feb 23Nottingham Forest 1–0 LeedsU2.5

Things worth knowing

Nottingham Forest return after a break of about 13 weeks — our research found form streaks reset over long lay-offs.
Leeds return after a break of about 13 weeks.

More: Nottingham Forest season stats · Leeds season stats · EFL Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.