EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The EFL Cup average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | no pick |
The result model puts Fleetwood Town at 48%, the draw at 26% and Shrewsbury at 26%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. EFL Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fleetwood Town have 0 in 1 this season, Shrewsbury 0 in 1 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 46% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Fleetwood Town and 1 for Shrewsbury. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Shrewsbury | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Fleetwood Town season stats · Shrewsbury season stats · EFL Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.