Svenska Cupen · Tuesday, 25 August 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Svenska Cupen average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Eskilsminne at 63%, the draw at 20% and Orgryte IS at 17%, from expected goals of 2.21 and 1.06.
The league sets the starting point. Svenska Cupen has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Eskilsminne have 0 in 0 this season, Orgryte IS 10 in 17 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.21 for Eskilsminne and 1.06 for Orgryte IS. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eskilsminne | 0 | — | — | — |
| Orgryte IS | 17 | 59% | 41% | 53% |
More: Orgryte IS season stats · Svenska Cupen table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.