EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The EFL Cup average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | no pick |
The result model puts Cambridge United at 37%, the draw at 25% and Millwall at 38%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.48.
The league sets the starting point. EFL Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cambridge United have 1 in 1 this season (1 of 1 at home), Millwall 0 in 1 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 54% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Cambridge United and 1.48 for Millwall. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Millwall | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Cambridge United season stats · Millwall season stats · EFL Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.