Champions League · Tuesday, 25 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Champions League average is 57%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | no pick |
The result model puts Bodo/Glimt at 66%, the draw at 19% and NEC Nijmegen at 15%, from expected goals of 2.26 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bodo/Glimt have 12 in 17 this season (6 of 8 at home), NEC Nijmegen 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 17 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.26 for Bodo/Glimt and 0.98 for NEC Nijmegen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 71% | 41% | 29% |
| NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
More: Champions League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.