1. Deild · Tuesday, 25 August 2026 · 20:15. Our rating makes this 73% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Deild average is 70%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 73% | 27% | Yes |
The result model puts Afturelding at 50%, the draw at 20% and Grotta at 30%, from expected goals of 2.24 and 1.73.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Afturelding have 14 in 18 this season (7 of 9 at home), Grotta 14 in 18 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 73% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 72%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 76%, from expected goals of 2.24 for Afturelding and 1.73 for Grotta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 73%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afturelding | 18 | 78% | 67% | 72% |
| Grotta | 18 | 78% | 44% | 78% |
More: Afturelding season stats · Grotta season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.