DFB Pokal · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | no pick |
The result model puts Würzburger Kickers at 62%, the draw at 20% and 1. FC Köln at 18%, from expected goals of 2.15 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Würzburger Kickers have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), 1. FC Köln 22 in 34 (9 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.15 for Würzburger Kickers and 1.09 for 1. FC Köln. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Würzburger Kickers | 2 | 100% | 100% | 50% |
| 1. FC Köln | 34 | 65% | 47% | 79% |
More: 1. FC Köln season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.