DFB Pokal · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | no pick |
The result model puts Verl at 51%, the draw at 23% and Hamburger SV at 26%, from expected goals of 1.88 and 1.27.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Verl have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Hamburger SV 19 in 34 (10 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 34 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 73% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.88 for Verl and 1.27 for Hamburger SV. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verl | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Hamburger SV | 34 | 56% | 32% | 65% |
More: Verl season stats · Hamburger SV season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.