TransINVEST Vilnius v Šiauliai — prediction, stats and goal analysis

A Lyga · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 16:45. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The A Lyga average is 53%.

Open this match in the app →

Our ratings for this match

The result model puts TransINVEST Vilnius at 48%, the draw at 26% and Šiauliai at 26%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.01.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. A Lyga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. TransINVEST Vilnius have 17 in 26 this season (6 of 12 at home), Šiauliai 14 in 25 (6 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 53%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.

Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 57%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.46 for TransINVEST Vilnius and 1.01 for Šiauliai. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: TransINVEST Vilnius season stats · Šiauliai season stats · A Lyga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.