Superettan · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 18:05. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Superettan average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts IFK Norrkoping at 54%, the draw at 21% and Falkenbergs FF at 25%, from expected goals of 2.05 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IFK Norrkoping have 8 in 19 this season (4 of 9 at home), Falkenbergs FF 13 in 19 (9 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.05 for IFK Norrkoping and 1.33 for Falkenbergs FF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Norrkoping | 19 | 42% | 21% | 32% |
| Falkenbergs FF | 19 | 68% | 42% | 79% |
More: IFK Norrkoping season stats · Falkenbergs FF season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.