Ypiranga-RS v Ferroviária — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Serie C · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 35%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Ypiranga-RS at 45%, the draw at 27% and Ferroviária at 29%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.06.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Ypiranga-RS have 9 in 16 this season (3 of 9 at home), Ferroviária 5 in 16 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 41% and 36%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.

Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 37%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Ypiranga-RS and 1.06 for Ferroviária. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Ypiranga-RS season stats · Ferroviária season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.