DFB Pokal · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | no pick |
The result model puts Westfalia Rhynern at 50%, the draw at 23% and Dynamo Dresden at 27%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Westfalia Rhynern have 0 in 0 this season, Dynamo Dresden 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 58% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Westfalia Rhynern and 1.22 for Dynamo Dresden. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Westfalia Rhynern | 0 | — | — | — |
| Dynamo Dresden | 2 | 50% | 0% | 0% |
More: Dynamo Dresden season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.