A Lyga · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 16:45. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The A Lyga average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Suduva Marijampole at 74%, the draw at 17% and Panevėžys at 9%, from expected goals of 2.23 and 0.64.
The league sets the starting point. A Lyga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Suduva Marijampole have 12 in 23 this season (5 of 12 at home), Panevėžys 13 in 23 (8 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 13 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 31%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 2.23 for Suduva Marijampole and 0.64 for Panevėžys. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole | 23 | 52% | 17% | 52% |
| Panevėžys | 23 | 57% | 26% | 57% |
More: Suduva Marijampole season stats · Panevėžys season stats · A Lyga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.