DFB Pokal · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | no pick |
The result model puts SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 35%, the draw at 24% and VfL Bochum at 41%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.61.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), VfL Bochum 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.46 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.61 for VfL Bochum. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2 | 50% | 50% | 100% |
| VfL Bochum | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: SpVgg Greuther Fürth season stats · VfL Bochum season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.