DFB Pokal · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | no pick |
The result model puts Rot-Weiß Essen at 43%, the draw at 24% and FC St. Pauli at 34%, from expected goals of 1.65 and 1.44.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rot-Weiß Essen have 0 in 0 this season, FC St. Pauli 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.65 for Rot-Weiß Essen and 1.44 for FC St. Pauli. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rot-Weiß Essen | 0 | — | — | — |
| FC St. Pauli | 2 | 50% | 50% | 100% |
More: Rot-Weiß Essen season stats · FC St. Pauli season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.