Oddevold v Helsingborg — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Superettan · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Superettan average is 56%.

Open this match in the app →

Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Oddevold at 45%, the draw at 23% and Helsingborg at 32%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.45.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Oddevold have 11 in 19 this season (5 of 9 at home), Helsingborg 13 in 19 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 61%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.

Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Oddevold and 1.45 for Helsingborg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Oddevold season stats · Helsingborg season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.