Superettan · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Superettan average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Norrby IF at 44%, the draw at 25% and Sandviken at 31%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.27.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Norrby IF have 9 in 19 this season (6 of 9 at home), Sandviken 13 in 19 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Norrby IF and 1.27 for Sandviken. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Norrby IF season stats · Sandviken season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.