Serie C · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 33% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Maranhão at 44%, the draw at 30% and AO Itabaiana at 26%, from expected goals of 1.18 and 0.83.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Maranhão have 7 in 17 this season (4 of 8 at home), AO Itabaiana 4 in 17 (1 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 28%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 1.18 for Maranhão and 0.83 for AO Itabaiana. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maranhão | 17 | 41% | 6% | 41% |
| AO Itabaiana | 17 | 24% | 18% | 35% |
More: Maranhão season stats · AO Itabaiana season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.