2. Deild · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Deild average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Magni at 59%, the draw at 20% and Vikingur Olafsiik at 21%, from expected goals of 2.21 and 1.25.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Magni have 12 in 17 this season (6 of 9 at home), Vikingur Olafsiik 10 in 17 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 2.21 for Magni and 1.25 for Vikingur Olafsiik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magni | 17 | 71% | 53% | 71% |
| Vikingur Olafsiik | 17 | 59% | 41% | 53% |
More: Magni season stats · Vikingur Olafsiik season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.