DFB Pokal · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | no pick |
The result model puts Krieschow at 45%, the draw at 24% and FSV Mainz 05 at 32%, from expected goals of 1.68 and 1.39.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Krieschow have 0 in 0 this season, FSV Mainz 05 18 in 34 (11 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.68 for Krieschow and 1.39 for FSV Mainz 05. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krieschow | 0 | — | — | — |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 53% | 32% | 62% |
More: FSV Mainz 05 season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.