Serie C · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Inter De Limeira at 38%, the draw at 30% and Figueirense at 32%, from expected goals of 1.12 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Inter De Limeira have 9 in 17 this season (4 of 8 at home), Figueirense 9 in 17 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.12 for Inter De Limeira and 1 for Figueirense. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter De Limeira | 17 | 53% | 24% | 59% |
| Figueirense | 17 | 53% | 24% | 59% |
More: Inter De Limeira season stats · Figueirense season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.