Superettan · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Superettan average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts IK Brage at 41%, the draw at 22% and United Nordic at 36%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 1.69.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IK Brage have 14 in 19 this season (8 of 9 at home), United Nordic 8 in 19 (2 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.81 for IK Brage and 1.69 for United Nordic. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IK Brage | 19 | 74% | 53% | 63% |
| United Nordic | 19 | 42% | 37% | 63% |
More: IK Brage season stats · United Nordic season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.