DFB Pokal · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | no pick |
The result model puts Fortuna Düsseldorf at 55%, the draw at 22% and SC Freiburg at 23%, from expected goals of 1.96 and 1.18.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortuna Düsseldorf have 0 in 0 this season, SC Freiburg 22 in 34 (10 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 34 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 56% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.96 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.18 for SC Freiburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Düsseldorf | 0 | — | — | — |
| SC Freiburg | 34 | 65% | 38% | 62% |
More: Fortuna Düsseldorf season stats · SC Freiburg season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.